References. 88 Republic of South Africa, Public Protector State of Capture, “Report no. Check your email for details on your request. As mentioned earlier, the combination of a well-constructed set of formal rules and credible enforcement mechanisms were a key underpinning for cooperation in South Africa. Hope for South Africa. . 127 Hirschman, “The Turn to Authoritarianism in Latin America and the Search for Its Economic Determinants,” 88. This change created new pressures for South Africa’s institutions of accountability. Gradually, gains began to be evident; economic growth accelerated and extreme poverty declined. Going into the ANC’s December 2017 elective conference, Zuma was confident that he was in control of events, and that his ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma would be elected as his successor. As the table shows, over the course of two decades both measures declined steadily but modestly. Unlike, for example, U.S. president Theodore Roosevelt’s assault on corruption and abuse of power in the United States nearly 120 years ago, Ramaphosa did not choose to ignore party bosses and rely on public support for reforms.128 He chose instead an incremental path, relying largely on hastily repaired prosecutorial authorities to clean up the state. 3,5 million people in South Africa are suffering from diabetes. Moreover, the inner workings of the ANC alliance resulted in a pattern of decisionmaking that disproportionately empowered unionized blue- and white-collar workers at the expense of those of its supporters who were outside the formal economy. Careful theoretical and empirical analysis of data from countries around the world has indicated that expanding investment in high-quality early childhood development (ECD) may have the highest return of all development investments. One notable institutional consequence of the pressure to expand the black South African middle class was that in the absence of a thriving, market-driven ladder of opportunity, public sector employment became an important pathway to upward mobility. Less than a quarter of the total population, but essentially all white South Africans, enjoyed a standard of living that was middle class or better. Between 1995 and 2005 (and continuing between 2005 and 2018), there was a large shift in the racial composition of management and other skilled positions within the bureaucracy. . These topics include public sector reform, political-administrative relations, anticorruption, policy implementation, monitoring and evaluation, and intergovernmental relations. At 38 percent, revenue collection as a percentage of GDP was above the United States (31 percent), similar to Australia (37 percent), and below Brazil (41 percent), Germany (46 percent), and Sweden (51 percent). Explore South Africa holidays and discover the best time and places to visit. You will find the same companies in charge. “The judges” (loc 5903-6401) lays out the fears of many at the time of chief justice Mogoeng’s appointment. One mechanism, highlighted by Hirschman’s “tunnel effect,” is ideational—a turn from hope to anger, evoked by a combination of disillusion and ethnopopulist political entrepreneurship.21 A second set of mechanisms works by corroding institutions. Upper echelons of the ANC competed for control over resources and positions of influence, further ratcheting up pressure on institutions. But as in many countries, a fairy-tale climax has not been the end of the story. A comprehensive assessment of the reasons for the origins and persistence of this income cliff is beyond the scope of this work.20 However, South Africa’s problems have much to do with the structural legacies of the apartheid era. (The voting power of these shares often was compromised.) Another more challenging but also ultimately hopeful approach to resolving the seeming contradiction between a racist past and an inclusive new beginning was captured in Stephen Biko’s classic dictum from the 1970s: “Whites must be made to realize that they are only human, not superior. Some of the findings of the Office of the Public Protector were anticipated by investigative reports in the media. It faced an especially difficult tension between creating new opportunities for those outside the formal economy and satisfying the concerns of vulnerable black middle-class insiders, who were an influential block within the ANC. The role of the Gupta family business empire during the Zuma presidency is one illustrative example.91, The Guptas venture into South Africa began in 1993 when Atul Gupta, having failed to find an entry point for business in China, arrived in South Africa in search of opportunities. Indeed, one of the attractions to apartheid-era elites of negotiating with the ANC was that its certain accession to power via a democratic election would confer legitimacy across society for a new, negotiated constitutional order that promised equal rights to all. This deal also appeared to be connected to the ANC’s efforts to raise finances for the 2004 election campaign.53 Similarly, in 2004, a multi-billion-dollar procurement contract for the boilers for the massive coal-fired Medupi electricity generation plant was awarded through an obscure process by the state-owned electricity company, Eskom. Success requires ongoing cooperation, but not all participants share the costs or reap the benefits of that cooperation at the same time. Then came the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as president. . 132 Bureau for Economic Research, “Beeld Consensus: Monthly Survey of Leading South African Economists Who Forecast Key Macroeconomic Variables,” Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa, December 2020, https://www.ber.ac.za/BER%20Documents/Beeld-Consensus/?doctypeid=1044. South Africa’s transition to democracy brought a far-reaching shift of political power from a white minority to the majority of its citizens. It might have been good enough to paper over, for a few years, the widening cracks in the country’s political, institutional, and social foundations. He was joined there by his brother Ajay in 1995 and other brother Rajesh in 1997. For education, where responsibility for provision is located at the provincial level, there is anecdotal evidence that in the mid-2010s teacher recruitment and promotion began to be subject to purchasing-of-posts corruption. . Whatever the origins of the cliff, its continued persistence made it difficult for the ANC government to deliver on its promise of upward mobility. It was closely aligned with the goal of representation and was justified on the basis of the need to reassert political control over a potentially recalcitrant bureaucracy, which, only a few years earlier, had constituted a repressive state apparatus. But there was also a shadow side to the new government’s use of economic power. These issues are made more complicated by a crisis of formal housing in formerly black metropolitan areas; and only marginal progress in improving rural access. Such is the case of the African Penguin Spheniscus demersus, also known as the Cape penguin, only found on the south-western tip of Africa in South Africa and Namibia. As so often happens with transfers of power, South Africa’s rising waves of political leaders had strong incentives (paralleling those of an earlier generation of white Afrikaner politicians) to use their newfound political power and control over state resources to open up business opportunities for their allies. 70 National Treasury, “Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2019,” October 30, 2019. Hope for South Africa. Its democracy is underpinned by a well-designed constitution and an unusually strong set of formal checks and balances on its institutions. The use of limited-term contracts was extended to the employment of top public servants, in order to engineer the entry of politically pliable officials as well as to discourage competent career-oriented officials from taking a principled stand against various forms of abuse of authority for fear of falling out with their political principals.72. For a long while, the ANC alliance remained firmly behind Zuma, with some exceptions. Consistent with the data in table 9 and the pattern evident in figure 3 below, control of the economic aggregates associated with public employment—numbers employed and wage levels—largely has been robust. Additional resources will be needed to follow through on the bold initiatives to accelerate upward mobility. In current 1994 dollars (at prevailing exchange rates), 1995 per capita income was closer to $4,000. As a recent wave of scholarship has underscored, deals and decisionmaking within personalized networks are not necessarily antithetical to development. A paradoxical source of strength of South Africa’s constitutional democracy was the strong set of formal checks and balances institutions that the newly democratic country inherited from the apartheid era. both political forbearance and private investment to continue over the long run. However, South Africa has also succeeded brilliantly in meeting what was (before the coronavirus pandemic) the largest challenge of the public health system over the past decade: the adequate stocking and provision, countrywide, of antiretroviral medications for the roughly one-quarter of the country adult population who are HIV-positive. 142 Anthony Atkinson, Inequality: What Can Be Done? For three of the measures, the country emerges as a strongly positive outlier, though its score on a fourth is more mixed—albeit for an understandable reason. Ideas matter—a hopeful vision of change, when combined with a “good enough” responsiveness to distributional concerns, can be sufficient to launch a positive trajectory. Surprisingly, there is no evidence of an accelerating decline from the Mbeki to the Zuma eras. The following summarizes some of the findings of news investigations of this “strange bedfellows” partnership: Bell Pottinger took on the Gupta family as clients in 2016 to try to improve their image, and the chosen strategy was to target white business leaders as a distraction from serious allegations of state capture. The prospects seemed positive for accelerating growth and continuing declines in extreme poverty. On both moral and pragmatic grounds, the status quo of South Africa’s economic power was untenable. The board was deadlocked over controversial contracts, including a contract with the Gupta media empire, and a set of (technically sound) proposals to insource management of Eskom’s information technology systems—proposals that were estimated to save R1 billion. Before moving to tertiary education teaching in 2017, Nxele worked in the private sector in the fields of investment banking and industrial development consulting. Growth began to accelerate, which created new opportunities for expanding the middle class. The deep-seated ongoing challenge was the country’s extreme inequality. . Between 2001 and 2008, the longest sustained commodity boom in recent history, South Africa’s mining industry contracted at a rate of 1 percent per year, even though its closest competitors grew an average of 5 percent per year—notwithstanding a 2010 valuation by Citgroup of South Africa’s proven mineral resource wealth at $2.5 trillion, the largest in the world.46 The MPRDA-mandated process of converting old-order to new-order mineral rights proved to be rife with ambiguity and scope for ministerial discretion as to what entailed a BEE-compliant conversion, resulting in numerous instances of conflict (resolved juridically) involving incumbent and BEE companies, and discretionary government action. HOPE for SOUTH Africa Foundation, Jeffrey's Bay. 113 Rekgotsofetse Chikane, Breaking a Rainbow, Building a Nation: The Politics Behind #MustFall Movements (Johannesburg: Picador Africa, 2019), 99, 105, 110. In May 2009, Zuma was sworn in as South Africa’s fourth president. South Africa’s leaders need to mobilize new coalitions capable of overcoming the vested interests that stymie inclusive change. Changing ownership and workplace relations are part of this wider process of empowerment. As described here, a strategy capable of delivering on a promise of upward mobility would have four interdependent aspects: Appendix B provides some additional detail on each of these aspects. . To this end, BirdLife South Africa’s Coastal Seabird Team is working with the government and the fishing industry, advocating for an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF) management, that incorporates ecosystem and socio-economic concerns into the fisheries management framework rather than the conventional approach that is centered around a single species. The equity was purchased from an international consortium, which had entered South Africa as part of a 1997 partial privatization deal but exited just seven years later.55 Between 2007 and 2009, a series of deals by Vodacom—one of South Africa’s two largest mobile telecommunications operators (at the time a joint venture between Telkom and UK-based Vodaphone, controlled by the latter)—resulted in the following: In sum, the inclusion of black South Africans into the capitalist class began through an ad hoc set of private initiatives in the early 1990s and transformed into a rule-based set of programs during the Mbeki presidency in the early 2000s. 129 Our World in Data, “South Africa: Coronavirus Country Profile,” accessed February 21, 2021, https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/south-africa?country=~ZAF. This section provides an overview of the channels through which continuing high levels of inequality can influence development outcomes. Table 5 lists some of the ways in which continuing imbalances between economic and political power might undermine the stability of the broader political settlement. 36 “Empowerment Hits Gold,” IOL, May 17, 2002, https://www.iol.co.za/entertainment/movies/news/empowerment-hits-gold-778604. Subsequently, following an in-depth investigation by the independent Competition Commission, all of the companies confessed to extensive World Cup construction-related price-fixing.51 Finally, in part as a consequence of the World Cup scandals, and in part as a consequence of broader economic stagnation, the industry went into the doldrums, with a major decline in share prices. We had become orators of our circumstances and warriors of its change. Yet by the mid-2010s, the limitations of the aspirational promises of 1994 had become all too evident. However, achieving gains in growth and poverty reduction turned out to be the relatively easy parts of the agenda of building a thriving inclusive society. The movement began at the University of Cape Town (UCT), the country’s premier university—admission into which seemingly offered a ticket into the elite, including for black South Africans.112 The movement was precipitated by a controversy over the pride of place given on the campus to a statue of arch-imperialist Cecil John Rhodes. 3 In this paper, the lowercasing of both “white” and “black” reflects current style preferences for racial terms within South Africa. An example of this approach is the African Penguin Island Closure Experiment BirdLife South Africa has been working closely with other NGO’s, seabird scientists and the government, to assess the impact of purse-seine fishing closures around four of the largest African Penguin breeding colonies since 2009. A few weeks before the announcement of the winners, “a company in which Iqbal Sharma, Rajesh Gupta and Duduzane Zuma were partners, acquired a stake in VR Laser Services.”98. This paper is a product of a research collaboration between the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town, focused on governance-development interactions in Africa. Gains for the poorest 40 percent were achieved without much alteration of their difficult underlying realities. (Specifics would, of course, be contested on both technocratic and ideological grounds.) Let us take the mines, companies who dominate in mines, few are benefiting. Prior to the bid award, all four of the winning bidders had visited VR Laser, a local metal-body construction company. Social security transfers rose to 3.5 percent of GDP by 2009, representing a concerted attempt to ameliorate severe poverty. The first two are implemented by provincial governments; the latter two are local government responsibilities. For similar historical reasons, redress is likely to have to include continuing attention to the difficult challenges of land redistribution, an area where the Ramaphosa government has been moving forward deliberately, and with due sensitivity to the hazards. In this he was decisively beaten: 1,505 delegates voted for him, and 2,329 for Zuma. Very modest gains in the real incomes of white South Africans—marginally above zero as a way of encouraging cooperation but proportionately less than for any other subgroups, implying a substantial decline (from 37 percent to 28 percent) in their share of total income. In the wake of the exposure of the Bell Pottinger campaign, dissemination of the WMC meme slowed but did not end entirely. Further, the Coastal Seabird Team is working on different approaches integrating ecosystem concerns into the way catch limits are set for sardine and anchovy – key prey species for three of four most threatened coastal seabird species in South Africa. Though he was not eligible to serve a third term as the country’s president, Mbeki proposed that a close ally would succeed him as the country’s president and put himself forward as a candidate for a third term in office as president of the ANC. . Collaborations are critical in advancing penguin conservation. As will become evident, even though some gains were achieved, these initiatives came with internal complications that would set the stage for accelerating difficulties in the 2010s. In a statement issued on Wednesday 7 April 2021, the Ministry in the Presidency responsible … Reality almost everywhere falls short of this idealized vision. Messages of hope and love for South Africa! In addition to egg collection and guano harvesting for fertilizer, reduced availability of this species food, mainly anchovy and sardines, has led to this massive population decline. Such is the case of the African Penguin Spheniscus demersus, also known as the Cape penguin, only found on the south-western tip of Africa in South Africa and Namibia. Previous penguin breeding attempts were unsuccessful due to predation, leading to abandonment of the colonies. Although the commercial media is in decline, investigative reporters banded together in in-depth reporting groups to secure funding from foundations supporting freedom of information. However, as per table 9, throughout the 1995–2018 period, employment in the single largest middle-class employment category—highly skilled production, where jobs are predominantly at the provincial level and mostly in the education and health sectors—actually declined. However, the economy continued to be structured along lines built by apartheid: white economic elites dominated ownership and control of the private sector. What can be learned from the experience that can help craft a way forward to a more thriving, inclusive hopeful trajectory? South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is the "last hope" for Africa's most advanced economy, but his government must turn incentive policies … South Africa also has been experimenting with a variety of modalities for subsidizing wages, as a way of helping to turn borderline-subsistence employment into a viable pathway to upward mobility. In 2018, a compromise seemingly was reached to ramp up BEE to 30 percent ownership within five years of the charter‚ including a contentious 10 percent free-carry for communities and employees as part of ownership structures.47 In December 2019, draft amendments to the regulations were published. 49 Almost all of the core negotiators who were not already senior industry executives subsequently were appointed as nonexecutive directors on the boards of leading construction companies. . New fears and hopes will, without warning, take charge of human conduct.8. Regardless of the situation, those who backed out of the social contract might easily undermine the entire process. Hope is on the horizon for South Africa A revitalised Democratic Alliance is committed to giving South Africans a reason to again lift their eyes up from the ground. 117 “Founding Manifesto of the Economic Freedom Fighters,” Politicsweb, July 25, 2013, https://www.politicsweb.co.za/news-and-analysis/founding-manifesto-of-the-economic-freedom-fighter; and “Malema: It’s an EFF Revolution,” News24, July 11, 2013, https://www.news24.com/southafrica/politics/malema-its-an-eff-revolution-20130711. With the issuance in 1997 (revised in 2002) of a Protocol on Corporate Governance in the Public Sector, South Africa promulgated a best practices set of institutional arrangements. Resources remained disproportionately concentrated within established white elite communities. In April 2015, Molefe was redeployed from Transnet to become Eskom CEO. Unsurprisingly, given the country’s fraught history, there was a distinctly racial flavor to South Africa’s angry turn. Multiple distinct waves of BEE were evident. 38 “Annual Report 2008,” African Rainbow Minerals, 2008, https://www.arm.co.za/archive/files/annual/2008/default.htm. 39 “Sustainability Report 2011,” African Rainbow Minerals, 2011, https://arm.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/ARM-sustainable-development-report-2011.pdf. . At the core of the EFF’s strategy for mobilizing political support was an angry rhetoric that targeted both the country’s continuing inequalities and their ethnic correlates. A Future South Africa: Visions, Strategies, and Realities edited by peter l. berger and bobby godsell westview press, 344 pages, $32.50 “M y dear friend, clear your mind of cant,” said Dr. Johnson in a celebrated piece of advice to Boswell. is the fact that the political leadership in government is quite distinct in terms of race, culture, background and lifestyle from the economic leadership. The next few years were times of continuing challenge for Eskom governance. In 2017, the EWC meme accelerated as well. The idea of gains through cooperation is radically different from an understanding of the world framed in terms of dominance and oppression. 57 Zweli Mokgata, “Vodacom Goes Ahead With Empowerment Deal,” Sowetan Live, April 1, 2008, https://www.sowetanlive.co.za/news/2008-04-01-vodacom-goes-ahead-with-empowerment-deal/ http://www.nber.org/papers/w24467. 2 (1937): 209. Where inequality is the domain of interest, the ideational challenges are different for political entrepreneurs who support the status quo and those who challenge it. Between June 2015 and December 2017, there were “known outflows from Gupta-linked companies and individuals to a group of Hong Kong companies amounting to R4.9 billion (somewhat under US$500 million).”92. The only enforcement mechanism was that to have access to public procurement opportunities, companies would need to be BEE compliant. The careful work in undertaking this … Understanding why this collision occurred and worsened over time is relevant not just for other middle-income countries but also many higher-income democracies wrestling with similar tensions between a declining tolerance for high or rising inequality and institutions that seemed strong in the past but find their legitimacy increasingly being questioned. It is easy to overstate the practical impact of this protocol in the years immediately following its issuance: both the PetroSA and Eskom/Medupi examples noted earlier happened during this supposed good governance heyday. . 26 Policy Co-ordination and Advisory Services, “Towards a 10 Year Review: Synthesis Report on Implementation of Government Programmes,” The Presidency, Republic of South Africa, October 2003, https://www.gov.za/documents/towards-10-year-review-synthesis-report-implementation-government-programmes-discussion#. No particular outward event sets off this dramatic turnaround.5, Potentially, though, the cycle might in time move from anger to a new phase. all SOE boards are required to issue Directors Reports [which include] a review of the financial performance of the past year, information relating to internal and external factors influencing SOE performance, stressing risks and opportunities and strategies to manage them. 99 This material is drawn principally from Catrina Goudinho and Lauren Hermanus, “(Re)conceptualising State Capture—With a Case Study of South African Power Company Eskom,” prepared for the Public Affairs Research Institute’s research conference on State Capture and Its Aftermath: Building Responsiveness Through State Reform, Johannesburg, October 22–24, 2018; and Anton Eberhard and Catrina Goudinho, “Eskom Inquiry Reference Book: A Resource for Parliament’s Public Enterprises Inquiry, Civil Society, Journalists and Engaged Citizens,” State Capacity Research Project, Graduate School of Business, University of Cape Town and Public Affairs Research Institute, August 2017. Yet starting in the mid-2000s, the country began to experience a disruptive collision between its strong political institutions and massive economic inequality. down payments on houses or flats, or the establishment of a small business.”142. . The response to these latest reports was a high-profile ministerial investigation that, although questioning the perceived scale of the problem, found more widespread nonmonetary irregularities and undue influence in appointment practices—all of which threatened to undermine professional standards in teaching. A strengthened supply side for upward mobility. Though the first three years of Ramaphosa’s presidency have been difficult, perhaps South Africa can surprise the world again—and others can learn from the experience. HEART-BROKEN Kyle Sinckler has been told to stay strong and not give up hope of touring South Africa after his shock Lions snub. 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